# When rates rise: from the Fed to a bank run

> A process map exported from forks.world (https://forks.world). Author: Brian. Source: https://forks.world/p/cmv0kq7yi003ljv06ivvpg6w7
> It describes who does what, in what order, and with which technology. Read the plain-language sections first; the JSON at the end is the exact, complete data.

## Summary

- 8 steps across 1 layer
- Persona: The Fed, Banks, Savers

## How to read this file

- A process is made of **layers**. The main layer is the top level; any step of kind `subprocess` opens a detail layer with its own lanes and steps.
- **Lanes** are either persona (people/roles) or technology (systems). Each step belongs to one lane; `using` lists tools a person uses for that step.
- Step kinds: `start`, `task`, `decision` (its arrows carry the answer as a label), `subprocess`, `end`.

## When rates rise: from the Fed to a bank run

Lanes:
- The Fed: person / role (id `fed`)
- Banks: person / role (id `banks`)
- Savers: person / role (id `savers`)

Steps, in the order they run:

1. **Inflation is high, so raise rates** [subprocess; The Fed; id `r1`], links to the published process "How the Fed's interest-rate decision ripples through your life" (https://forks.world/p/cmv0kplgj002fjn0652cqcctk; full text at https://forks.world/api/public/cmv0kplgj002fjn0652cqcctk/export)
   - then Older bonds lose value
2. **Older bonds lose value** [task; Banks; id `r2`]
   - then Is a bank exposed to those losses?
3. **Is a bank exposed to those losses?** [decision; Banks; id `r3`]
   - if "Yes" go to A bank run can follow; if "No" go to Business as usual
4. **A bank run can follow** [subprocess; Banks; id `r4`], links to the published process "How a bank run happens" (https://forks.world/p/cmv0kpu7j004sjn06auwzqloq; full text at https://forks.world/api/public/cmv0kpu7j004sjn06auwzqloq/export)
   - then Savings pay more and loans cost more
5. **Savings pay more and loans cost more** [task; Savers; id `r6`]
   - then Is inflation coming down?
6. **Is inflation coming down?** [decision; The Fed; id `r7`]
   - if "Yes" go to Hold or cut the rates; if "No — raise again" go to Inflation is high, so raise rates
7. **Hold or cut the rates** [end; The Fed; id `r8`]
8. **Business as usual** [task; Banks; id `r5`]
   - then Savings pay more and loans cost more

```mermaid
flowchart LR
  subgraph l_fed["The Fed"]
    n_r1[["Inflation is high, so raise rates"]]
    n_r7{"Is inflation coming down?"}
    n_r8(["Hold or cut the rates"])
  end
  subgraph l_banks["Banks"]
    n_r2["Older bonds lose value"]
    n_r3{"Is a bank exposed to those losses?"}
    n_r4[["A bank run can follow"]]
    n_r5["Business as usual"]
  end
  subgraph l_savers["Savers"]
    n_r6["Savings pay more and loans cost more"]
  end
  n_r1 --> n_r2
  n_r2 --> n_r3
  n_r3 -->|"Yes"| n_r4
  n_r3 -->|"No"| n_r5
  n_r4 --> n_r6
  n_r5 --> n_r6
  n_r6 --> n_r7
  n_r7 -->|"Yes"| n_r8
  n_r7 -->|"No — raise again"| n_r1
```

## Full data (JSON)

```json
{
  "title": "When rates rise: from the Fed to a bank run",
  "maps": {
    "m_root": {
      "id": "m_root",
      "lanes": [
        {
          "id": "fed",
          "name": "The Fed",
          "type": "person"
        },
        {
          "id": "banks",
          "name": "Banks",
          "type": "person"
        },
        {
          "id": "savers",
          "name": "Savers",
          "type": "person"
        }
      ],
      "steps": [
        {
          "id": "r1",
          "kind": "subprocess",
          "lane": "fed",
          "link": {
            "id": "cmv0kplgj002fjn0652cqcctk",
            "scope": "public",
            "title": "How the Fed's interest-rate decision ripples through your life"
          },
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r2"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Inflation is high, so raise rates"
        },
        {
          "id": "r2",
          "kind": "task",
          "lane": "banks",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r3"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Older bonds lose value"
        },
        {
          "id": "r3",
          "kind": "decision",
          "lane": "banks",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r4",
              "label": "Yes"
            },
            {
              "to": "r5",
              "label": "No"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Is a bank exposed to those losses?"
        },
        {
          "id": "r4",
          "kind": "subprocess",
          "lane": "banks",
          "link": {
            "id": "cmv0kpu7j004sjn06auwzqloq",
            "scope": "public",
            "title": "How a bank run happens"
          },
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r6"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "A bank run can follow"
        },
        {
          "id": "r5",
          "kind": "task",
          "lane": "banks",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r6"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Business as usual"
        },
        {
          "id": "r6",
          "kind": "task",
          "lane": "savers",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r7"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Savings pay more and loans cost more"
        },
        {
          "id": "r7",
          "kind": "decision",
          "lane": "fed",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r8",
              "label": "Yes"
            },
            {
              "to": "r1",
              "label": "No — raise again"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Is inflation coming down?"
        },
        {
          "id": "r8",
          "kind": "end",
          "lane": "fed",
          "next": [],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Hold or cut the rates"
        }
      ],
      "title": "When rates rise: from the Fed to a bank run",
      "parent": null
    }
  }
}
```