# How a recession starts and ends

> A process map exported from forks.world (https://forks.world). Author: Brian. Source: https://forks.world/p/cmv21nuow002fl206l6bgxscx
> It describes who does what, in what order, and with which technology. Read the plain-language sections first; the JSON at the end is the exact, complete data.

## Summary

- 11 steps across 1 layer
- Persona: Households, Businesses, Central bank, Government

## Pain points

Where this process hurts, worst first:

- **Layoffs begin** (How a recession starts and ends; critical): Job losses feed more spending cuts

## How to read this file

- A process is made of **layers**. The main layer is the top level; any step of kind `subprocess` opens a detail layer with its own lanes and steps.
- **Lanes** are either persona (people/roles) or technology (systems). Each step belongs to one lane; `using` lists tools a person uses for that step.
- Step kinds: `start`, `task`, `decision` (its arrows carry the answer as a label), `subprocess`, `end`.

## How a recession starts and ends

Lanes:
- Households: person / role (id `people`)
- Businesses: person / role (id `firms`)
- Central bank: person / role (id `bank`)
- Government: person / role (id `gov`)

Steps, in the order they run:

1. **Interest rates rise to fight inflation** [start; Central bank; id `r1`]
   - then Loans and mortgages cost more, so people spend less
2. **Loans and mortgages cost more, so people spend less** [task; Households; id `r2`]
   - then Sales fall and firms stop hiring
3. **Sales fall and firms stop hiring** [task; Businesses; id `r3`]
   - then Do sales keep falling?
4. **Do sales keep falling?** [decision; Businesses; id `r4`]
   - if "Yes" go to Layoffs begin; if "No" go to The economy cools but holds: a soft landing
5. **Layoffs begin** [task; Businesses; id `r5`] ⚠ PAIN POINT (critical): Job losses feed more spending cuts
   - then Even less spending
6. **Even less spending** [task; Households; id `r6`]
   - then Output falls for two quarters: a recession is called
7. **Output falls for two quarters: a recession is called** [task; Government; id `r7`]
   - then Cut rates to make borrowing cheap
8. **Cut rates to make borrowing cheap** [task; Central bank; id `r9`]
   - then Spend more and cut taxes to restart demand
9. **Spend more and cut taxes to restart demand** [subprocess; Government; id `r10`], links to the published process "How a tariff ends up in a price tag" (https://forks.world/p/cmv0kplxp002kjn0662p2ydgs; full text at https://forks.world/api/public/cmv0kplxp002kjn0662p2ydgs/export)
   - then Hiring picks up and growth returns
10. **Hiring picks up and growth returns** [end; Businesses; id `r11`]
11. **The economy cools but holds: a soft landing** [end; Central bank; id `r8`]

```mermaid
flowchart LR
  subgraph l_people["Households"]
    n_r2["Loans and mortgages cost more, so people spend less"]
    n_r6["Even less spending"]
  end
  subgraph l_firms["Businesses"]
    n_r3["Sales fall and firms stop hiring"]
    n_r4{"Do sales keep falling?"}
    n_r5["Layoffs begin"]
    n_r11(["Hiring picks up and growth returns"])
  end
  subgraph l_bank["Central bank"]
    n_r1(["Interest rates rise to fight inflation"])
    n_r8(["The economy cools but holds: a soft landing"])
    n_r9["Cut rates to make borrowing cheap"]
  end
  subgraph l_gov["Government"]
    n_r7["Output falls for two quarters: a recession is called"]
    n_r10[["Spend more and cut taxes to restart demand"]]
  end
  n_r1 --> n_r2
  n_r2 --> n_r3
  n_r3 --> n_r4
  n_r4 -->|"Yes"| n_r5
  n_r4 -->|"No"| n_r8
  n_r5 --> n_r6
  n_r6 --> n_r7
  n_r7 --> n_r9
  n_r9 --> n_r10
  n_r10 --> n_r11
```

## Full data (JSON)

```json
{
  "title": "How a recession starts and ends",
  "maps": {
    "m_root": {
      "id": "m_root",
      "lanes": [
        {
          "id": "people",
          "name": "Households",
          "type": "person"
        },
        {
          "id": "firms",
          "name": "Businesses",
          "type": "person"
        },
        {
          "id": "bank",
          "name": "Central bank",
          "type": "person"
        },
        {
          "id": "gov",
          "name": "Government",
          "type": "person"
        }
      ],
      "steps": [
        {
          "id": "r1",
          "kind": "start",
          "lane": "bank",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r2"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Interest rates rise to fight inflation"
        },
        {
          "id": "r2",
          "kind": "task",
          "lane": "people",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r3"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Loans and mortgages cost more, so people spend less"
        },
        {
          "id": "r3",
          "kind": "task",
          "lane": "firms",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r4"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Sales fall and firms stop hiring"
        },
        {
          "id": "r4",
          "kind": "decision",
          "lane": "firms",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r5",
              "label": "Yes"
            },
            {
              "to": "r8",
              "label": "No"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Do sales keep falling?"
        },
        {
          "id": "r5",
          "kind": "task",
          "lane": "firms",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r6"
            }
          ],
          "pain": {
            "note": "Job losses feed more spending cuts",
            "level": 3
          },
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Layoffs begin"
        },
        {
          "id": "r6",
          "kind": "task",
          "lane": "people",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r7"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Even less spending"
        },
        {
          "id": "r7",
          "kind": "task",
          "lane": "gov",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r9"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Output falls for two quarters: a recession is called"
        },
        {
          "id": "r8",
          "kind": "end",
          "lane": "bank",
          "next": [],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "The economy cools but holds: a soft landing"
        },
        {
          "id": "r9",
          "kind": "task",
          "lane": "bank",
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r10"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Cut rates to make borrowing cheap"
        },
        {
          "id": "r10",
          "kind": "subprocess",
          "lane": "gov",
          "link": {
            "id": "cmv0kplxp002kjn0662p2ydgs",
            "scope": "public",
            "title": "How a tariff ends up in a price tag"
          },
          "next": [
            {
              "to": "r11"
            }
          ],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Spend more and cut taxes to restart demand"
        },
        {
          "id": "r11",
          "kind": "end",
          "lane": "firms",
          "next": [],
          "uses": [],
          "label": "Hiring picks up and growth returns"
        }
      ],
      "title": "How a recession starts and ends",
      "parent": null
    }
  }
}
```