How an election poll is made (and why it is sometimes wrong)
Process map by Brian. 17 steps, 2 layers. Tags: politics, elections, statistics.
- Pollster: Decide who to measure: all adults, registered or likely voters
- Pollster: Build a sample list: phones and online panels
- People surveyed: Contact people
- People surveyed: Do they respond?
- The statistical model: Weight the answers so the sample looks like the country
- The statistical model: Estimate who will actually vote
- The statistical model: Compute the margin of error
- Media: Publish the poll and the headline
- Voters: The election happens
- Pollster: Was the poll close?
- Pollster: Credit for accuracy, until next time
- Pollster: Find the miss: who did not answer, who changed their mind
- Pollster: Most people do not: try again and find replacements