Earth's heat engine, faulting, earthquakes and isostasy
How internal heat escaping through the surface drives slow mantle flow and plate motion, how plate motion loads faults that release strain in earthquakes or creep, how one earthquake triggers others, and how the mantle rebounds after ice unloading (isostasy).
Starts with: Earth loses about 47 TW of internal heat through its surface (primordial cooling plus radioactive decay), the power supply for mantle convection
Ends after: Aseismic creep and slow slip on weakly coupled faults (about 30%, estimate); Most large earthquakes occur at subduction trenches; the 2011 Tohoku M9 released strain stored where the Pacific plate subducts beneath Japan
What am I looking at? The concepts on every map
- Participant
- Someone or something that takes part in a process or influences it: a plant, a microbe, a river, a machine, a force. Participants are the rows of a map.
- Resource
- Something a step uses or uses up: water, oxygen, sunlight, a tool. Each step has an arrow down to the resources it uses.
- Step
- One thing that happens in a process. Every step has at least one participant and carries evidence.
- Decision fork
- A step where the process can go several ways. Every outcome is labeled with a percentage, and the percentages add up to 100%. It is not limited to yes or no.
- Loop
- A line that carries the process back to an earlier step. We record whether it reinforces or balances, how strong it is (weak, moderate, strong), and its gain (0 to 1): the share of the effect that returns on each pass.
- Size of impact
- Every line says how much the earlier step affects the next one (1 to 5), in which direction (+, -, 0), and why. Thicker lines mean bigger impact.
- Evidence
- The support for a claim: a source and what it shows. Every step, line, change and vote needs it. Click any step or line to read its evidence.
- Boundary
- Where a process starts and where it ends. Every process, and every subprocess, has a start and an end.
- Subprocess
- A step that is itself a whole process, with its own boundary, steps and lines. Click a step marked ↘ to open it. Subprocesses nest as deep as the evidence goes.
- Description
- A plain-language summary of what a process is and what it covers.
- Hypothesis
- A proposed new connection between two parts of the map that nobody has linked. It carries a prediction, a way to test it, and a count of papers on each topic and on both. It is an unverified idea until someone tests it.
Every step, with its evidence
The same information as the map, as a list you can search and share. Click a participant or resource to see everywhere it appears.
Evidence (1) · added by Briangold-Claude
- Davies & Davies 2010, Earth's surface heat flux, Solid Earth 1:5-24, https://se.copernicus.org/articles/1/5/2010/: The preferred estimate of Earth's surface heat flux is 47 +/- 2 TW, higher than previous estimates, from a global compilation with a correction for hot spots in young oceanic lithosphere. (confidence 0.9)
Evidence (2) · added by Briangold-Claude
- Ozawa et al. 2011, Coseismic and postseismic slip of the 2011 magnitude-9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Nature 475:373-376, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10227: The strain accumulation rate at the Japan trench estimated from geodesy was much higher than the average strain released in previous interplate earthquakes, before the 2011 M9 event released it. (confidence 0.85)
- Scholz & Campos 2012, The seismic coupling of subduction zones revisited, J. Geophys. Res. 117:B05310, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009003: GPS measurements of upper-plate deformation during the interseismic period give geodetic estimates of how much of the plate convergence is locked (seismic coupling). (confidence 0.85)
Evidence (1) · added by Briangold-Claude
- Scholz & Campos 2012, The seismic coupling of subduction zones revisited, J. Geophys. Res. 117:B05310, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009003: Seismic coupling varies between and within subduction zones: high where normal forces are high, switching abruptly to low coupling below a critical normal force; the 70/30 split is an estimate. (confidence 0.6)
Evidence (1) · added by Briangold-Claude
- Scholz & Campos 2012, The seismic coupling of subduction zones revisited, J. Geophys. Res. 117:B05310, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009003: High coupling occurs for subduction zones under high normal force and asperities correlate with areas of high coupling. (confidence 0.7)
Evidence (1) · added by Briangold-Claude
- Scholz & Campos 2012, The seismic coupling of subduction zones revisited, J. Geophys. Res. 117:B05310, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009003: Low coupling occurs fairly abruptly as the normal force falls below a critical value, with considerable variation within individual subduction zones. (confidence 0.7)
Evidence (2) · added by Briangold-Claude
- Gutenberg & Richter 1944, Frequency of earthquakes in California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 34:185-188, https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0340040185: Gutenberg and Richter established the log-linear frequency-magnitude relation of earthquakes. (confidence 0.8)
- IRIS (EarthScope) fact sheet, How often do earthquakes occur?, https://www.iris.edu/hq/inclass/fact-sheet/how_often_do_earthquakes_occur: The National Earthquake Information Center locates about 12,000-14,000 earthquakes each year; for each step up in magnitude earthquakes become much rarer and release about 32 times more energy. (confidence 0.8)
Evidence (1) · added by Briangold-Claude
- Ozawa et al. 2011, Coseismic and postseismic slip of the 2011 magnitude-9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Nature 475:373-376, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10227: Most large earthquakes occur along an oceanic trench where an oceanic plate subducts; magnitude-9 events are known from Chile, Alaska, Kamchatka, Sumatra and now Japan. (confidence 0.9)
Evidence (3) · added by Briangold-Claude
- Stein 1999, The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence, Nature 402:605-609, https://www.nature.com/articles/45144: An earthquake alters shear and normal stress on surrounding faults; rates climb where stress increases (aftershocks) and fall where it drops, followed by time-dependent recovery. (confidence 0.9)
- King, Stein & Lin 1994, Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 84:935-953, https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0840030935: Coulomb stress changes from the 1992 Landers earthquake explain the distribution of its aftershocks and the triggering of nearby events. (confidence 0.85)
- Utsu, Ogata & Matsu'ura 1995, The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity, J. Phys. Earth 43:1-33, https://doi.org/10.4294/jpe1952.43.1: Aftershock rate decays with time after the mainshock following the Omori formula. (confidence 0.8)
Evidence (2) · added by Briangold-Claude
- Sella et al. 2007, Observation of glacial isostatic adjustment in stable North America with GPS, Geophys. Res. Lett. 34:L02306, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027081: GPS shows present-day uplift of about 10 mm/yr near Hudson Bay, the site of thickest ice at the last glacial maximum, and subsidence of 1-2 mm/yr south of the Great Lakes. (confidence 0.9)
- Peltier 2004, Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age Earth: the ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 32:111-149, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.32.082503.144359: The viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to changing ice loads (ICE-5G/VM2) is constrained by relative sea-level and gravity observations. (confidence 0.85)